Background: 2023 to 2025
In securing support for his minority government after his 2024 State election defeat, Premier Rockliff signed a deal with the then JLN members of Parliament. It was based on a number of conditions, one of which was to have an independent economic review of the State’s Finances. The second condition was for an economist to be engaged to conduct an independent investigation of the implications of the AFL Team Funding Agreement. The Premier engaged leading economist Dr Nicholas Gruen for this review.
The AFL Team Funding Agreement was a deal precipitously negotiated and signed in secret by the Premier and the then AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan in May 2023, without reference to Parliament, or his Cabinet or Treasury or the Attorney General, or anyone in the community. The Agreement included several conditions – most importantly for the state itself, the construction of a stadium at Macquarie Point.
Dr Gruen released his report in January 2025. It raised serious concerns regarding cost overruns, flawed decision-making processes, inadequate community consultation, and a lack of transparency. The 2025 Review concluded that the project, as currently structured, was likely to be far more expensive than projected, with any benefits significantly overstated. Dr Gruen strongly recommended a significant re-evaluation of the project, including extending the timeline, more robust consultation, a revised cost-benefit analysis and a more transparent approach to public-private partnerships. The report argued that the current process risked very significant cost blowouts, community division and reputational damage to the AFL.
The central conclusion of the 2025 Gruen Review was that the projected costs of the Macquarie Point stadium have been significantly underestimated, likely to exceed $1 billion, and return only 44 cents for every dollar invested by Tasmania, indicating a substantial financial risk for the state. Hallmarks of mismanagement were already evident. A prime example was the Tasmanian Government’s self-imposed spending cap of $375 million on the state’s contribution to the cost, which was unrealistic and already causing corners to be cut. The benefits of the stadium, particularly in terms of tourism spillover, were found to have been overestimated. And the opportunity cost of the site had not been adequately costed.
The Premier thanked Dr Gruen for his work and then set it aside, as he did with the Planning Commission’s various reports, and Treasury advice about the woeful state of Tasmania’s economy.
Click here to read more about the 2025 Gruen Review:
In September 2025, following a two-year assessment process, the government’s own Planning Commission report was handed down. It roundly rejected the idea of a stadium at Mac Point, with its findings largely in line with those of Dr Gruen earlier in the year.
The Premier rejected the Commission’s report half an hour after it was released, before he could possibly have even read it. His response was to announce the project cost had increased from about $880 million to $1.13 billion.
In December 2025, The Premier struck deals with some Upper House members to secure their votes for the passage of the Macquarie Point Stadium Order. One such deal included a new spending cap of $875M, revised up for the second time from the March 2024 original cap of $375M (“and not a red cent more”).
Roland Browne – Our Place Hobart spokesperson
At the time, Our Place – Hobart spokesperson Roland Browne said:
These deals are laughable. They rely on this government honouring its word, a most unlikely outcome.
Have these Upper House members forgotten the Premier’s promise to politicians that the Teams were not linked to a stadium? Have they forgotten the promise of ‘not a red cent more than $375m’? Have they forgotten the stadium was to be funded by private equity? Have they forgotten the assurance to the RSL that the stadium was to be no more than 40 m high?
Most importantly, there’s no accountability and no consequence if the government falls short on the commitments it has actually offered.
Background: 2026
By early 2026, it was clear that Mr Browne’s warnings were spot on. The Opposition had all but abandoned the field. Efforts to truly hold the Government to account lay in the hands of a small number of tireless Green and Independent parliamentarians, still courageously backing the voice of the Tasmanian community.
The new year also saw an increasing number of industry voices raising concerns about soaring construction costs, heightened by the Iran conflict, and exacerbated by local challenges including sand shortages in the south of the state and limited options for disposal of contaminated waste.
And news of ever-growing costs as a direct result of government mismanagement just kept coming. How much will that Spirits debacle finally cost us?
As early as February 2026, a five-yearly report by the Department of Treasury and Finance found that that state’s finances were on track to “rapidly deteriorate”, with deficits becoming “increasingly unmanageable”. It showed that Tasmania’s financial buffers had been depleted, with a likelihood of further credit rating downgrades.
None of this made a jot of difference to the pronouncements of the Premier, the Treasurer, the Macquarie Point Development Corporation. All continued to claim that the process to finalise a contract to build the stadium was proceeding on the basis that it would still cost around the $1.13B sum announced in September 2025.
And alarm bells were sounding about the nature of the coming contract. A design-and-construct contract gives rise to a sum that may sound acceptable, but will not be the final number. What is locked in at this point is the starting price, with escalation inevitable as the parties agree over time on variations, latent-condition claims, delay and disruption claims, unresolved interface issues, design development, and other contractual relief mechanisms. Given the huge number of unknowns at Mac Point, this escalation could be exponential. And this all becomes clear at a point where the site is live, crawling with trucks and cranes. Employment and building contracts are locked in. The practical and legal cost of stopping is daunting. That we are committed to a contract whereby unresolved risk is shifted into the construction phase comes home to roost. At Our Place, it became increasingly clear that the time for true scrutiny of the factors that will contribute to cost blowouts is now, not when it’s deemed to be too late to go back.
Concerns were also rippling through AFL circles. National sports journalist Sam McClure began reporting on disquiet in club ranks about the viability of the Tasmanian team should the stadium proceed. Click here to read more about McClure’s findings:
In this context, the team at Our Place decided that the time was right to engage Dr Nicholas Gruen to provide an independent update of his report. This was only ever going to be possible if Tasmanians dug deep to pay for it. That is just what you did, and we can’t thank you enough. One donor noted how extraordinary it was that the people of Tasmania were required to fundraise to learn the truth about the cost of their government’s proposed build.
The updated Gruen Review released
In a letter to the 18 AFL Presidents in the days leading up to the public release of the updated report, Our Place asked that, when the Presidents met on 9 June 2026, they recognise Dr Gruen’s proposed alternative, affordable approach to assuring the success of the Tasmanian teams and resolve to re-negotiate the deal that will deliver the teams in 2028. Click here to read the Our Place letter to the AFL Presidents:
The release of the updated report on 9 June 2026 deservedly attracted media attention. Our Place held a media conference on the day. Click here to read our Media Release:
Nationally, Sam McClure continued to pursue the story. Click here to read McClure’s article in The Age:
Locally, the ABC’s Leon Compton interviewed Dr Gruen about his findings. Click here to listen the radio interview:
The updated Gruen Review’s findings
Dr Gruen found that “the project’s economics have deteriorated” and that an “already uneconomic project looks even worse”. Some report highlights:
- The project remains uneconomic with a cost to Tasmania of about $1.5 billion, plus interest of $560 million. The worst case scenario is a cost of about $2 billion, plus interest of about $750 million. These are huge numbers!
- The Stadium boosts state debt by $2.3 billion and risks another credit downgrade.
- Megaproject risk means it could have a net cost per Tasmanian of $3,200.
- There is a vastly more cost-effective alternative.
- The Government’s case rests on unquantifiable and implausibly large benefits.
There has been a profound shift in Dr Gruen’s conclusions and recommendations in the 18 months between his first and second reports. He is now recommending the stadium be abandoned.
Critically, he concludes with this recommendation:
The conclusion from this further study is that Tasmanians should brace themselves for continuing escalation of costs as the project proceeds. It is not too late to explore alternative uses of the valuable site and to address the AFL’s and the Devils’ legitimate needs at a vastly lower cost. Right now, the AFL’s insistence on a new stadium is quite rightly being seen as bullying Australia’s smallest state and one of the states that founded the Australian code. It is also causing division within the Tasmanian community. That’s not just against Tasmania’s interests, it is against the AFLs, particularly given that the AFL’s needs can be met at around one-tenth the cost of the Stadium. If sense prevails, and both parties defend their own legitimate interests Tasmania can have its new AFL and AFLW teams without being plunged into a large increase in its debt and risking a further credit rating downgrade.
Click here to read the full updated report:
What’s next?
There is a lot to do over the next few months to ensure that these vital messages are heard everywhere:
- The proposed stadium will cost up to $2B and ramp up Tasmania’s debt by $2.3B.
- Renegotiating the deal now means:
✅ Delivering Tasmania’s AFLW and AFL teams with a stable financial foundation for around 1/10th of that spend
✅ Uniting the community behind the teams
✅ Preserving Tasmanian jobs and services
✅ An opportunity for Mac Point to be a showcase for Hobart and for the whole state.
We need your help to do that.
We know you’re tired.
But this isn’t an impossible pipe dream.
There’s disquiet in the AFL ranks. Voices speaking up in the halls of the Tasmanian Parliament.
So let’s raise ours.
The time is fast coming when they’ll argue that we’ve spent so much on the stadium that they can no longer turn back.
And we all know the cost will have blown out even further by then.
For today, add your name to the list of Tasmanians who want this madness stopped NOW.
Read the report. Share its findings. Tell your friends what this stadium will cost them.
NOW is the time to act!